Market Commentary

On Monday, Donald Trump was inaugurated as the 47th president of the United States. He started his second term with a bang, signing executive orders to rescind Biden-era directives, pardoning hundreds of January 6th rioters, withdrawing from the Paris climate accords and World Health Organisation, and sending troops to the US border with Mexico. However,…

According to data released on Wednesday by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), UK inflation slowed to 2.5% in December. This was below the November figure of 2.6%, and behind analyst expectations that inflation would remain at this level. According to swap markets, traders are now pricing in an 80% chance of a rate cut…

On Wednesday, the 10-year gilt yield rose 0.13 percentage points to 4.82%, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, as investors worried about the Labour government’s borrowing requirements and the looming threat of stagflation. Sterling hit its weakest level against the dollar since April 2024 at $1.234, and the FTSE250 fell 2%. However, it…

For the second year in a row, the S&P500 index has risen over 20% as the magnificent seven continued to push the index higher. In 2023 the S&P500 returned 24%, and for 2024 returned 23% despite the December sell-off as excitement surrounding AI continued to push megacap tech stocks higher. Chipmaker Nvidia ended 2024 with…

Yesterday, at their last meeting of the year, the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee voted by a margin of six-to-three to hold interest rates at 4.75%, as recent increases in wages and prices indicated inflation still persists. The hold on rates comes despite the BoE downgrading its prediction of growth prospects for the last…

US inflation increased to 2.7% in November according to figures released on Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics; inline with analyst expectations but higher than October’s figure of 2.6%. Markets are now indicating a more than 98% chance the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 0.25 percentage points at the meeting next week. However,…

UK house prices rose at the fastest pace in two years in November, amid strong wage growth and lower mortgage rates. According to figures released by Nationwide, average house prices rose 3.7% in the year to November, higher than analysts’ expectations of 2.2% following an increase of 2.4% in the year to October. Nationwide’s figures…

Donald Trump has pledged to impose tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico of 25%, and China an additional 10% on top of current levies from his first day in office, according to a post made on Truth Social, his own social media site. In reaction, the Canadian dollar fell 0.9% against the US dollar…

Official data released on Wednesday by the Office for National Statistics showed a sharp increase in UK inflation. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 2.3% in the year to October 2024, up from 1.7% in September and above analyst expectations of 2.2% according to Reuters. The rise could be partly attributed to a 10%…

The UK economy grew just 0.1% in the last quarter according to data released by the Office for National Statistics. This was below economists’ expectations of 0.2%, and the previous quarter’s rise of 0.5%. The services sector, which accounts for circa 80% of the economy, expanded just 0.1% compared to 0.6% in the previous quarter.…